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Each year, as the summer movie season winds down, we get to hear the box-office analysis of the previous four months, and these days it tends to be more than just a who’s-up/who’s-down postmortem of the business of Hollywood. It’s become a way of reading the tea leaves of where movies stand in American life. Are they going great guns? Merely holding their own? Or slipping? The grand narrative the numbers of the last 10 years generally add up to is: slipping.

I don’t say this to be a negative nabob, but because it’s the stark reality that the powers of the movie industry are up against. We all know the larger trends. For years, higher ticket prices (and carny-barker gambits like 3D) have been working to compensate for the fact that movie attendance is gradually sliding downward. The international box office takes up a growing segment of the business, and in certain ways (though not all) that’s a good thing. But it’s still just offsetting the slow shrinkage of the domestic market. (MoviePass may or may not prove to be a successful business, but it has tangibly demonstrated that audiences are increasingly hostile to higher ticket prices.)

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